The National Picture
This article marks the third instalment in our series examining the emerging Grey Belt strategy on a national scale. As previously highlighted, the government aims to build 1.5 million homes in the next five years. If successfully implemented, the Grey Belt initiative could play a pivotal role in meeting this ambitious target. The former government set significant housebuilding goals—constructing 300,000 homes annually and achieving one million new homes over a parliamentary term. However, the figures for 2021-22 and 2022-23 fell short, with only around 235,000 homes built each year. With the new Labour government adopting even more aggressive targets, innovative strategies like repurposing Grey Belt land could be key to delivering homes on a larger scale.
Our research has uncovered nearly 14,000 potential Grey Belt sites across England and Scotland. Of these sites identified, they could collectively accommodate up to 525,000 new homes, representing a substantial opportunity to address the housing shortage. In partnership with CACI, our research reveals that 36% of all home movers in these regions live within two miles of a potential Grey Belt site. To put this into perspective, nearly five million potential home movers are currently situated within the catchment areas of these sites. This emphasises the strategic importance of Grey Belt land, not only in providing housing but in meeting demand where people are already seeking to relocate.
The fact that one in three movers live so close to these sites is a powerful indicator of the relevance of Grey Belt land in addressing the housing needs of a growing, mobile population. This proximity strengthens the case for rolling out the Grey Belt strategy on a national level, offering immediate and long-term benefits to communities in need of affordable housing solutions.
The accompanying data illustrates the national picture of the new Grey Belt strategy, highlighting the importance of addressing the housing needs of underserved groups. Housing development has traditionally focused on a few demographic clusters, with the "Tenant Living" group (18%) receiving a large share of new housing deliveries. This reflects a growing focus on affordable housing and rental markets, which are crucial for tackling the UK’s housing crisis. However, the Grey Belt strategy seeks to broaden this scope, opening up underutilised land for development to benefit a wider range of demographics, including "Limited Budgets" (3.3%) and "Hard-Up Households" (2.8%).
Further research conducted by CACI highlights the potential of Grey Belt sites to serve undersupplied groups. Data reveals that people living within two miles of potential Grey Belt sites skew towards lower-affluent groups, which have historically been underserved in new housing developments. Groups such as "Limited Budgets" (6.1%), "Hard-Up Households" (8.4%), and "Cash-Strapped Families" (7.3%) represent a significant proportion of Grey Belt movers compared to the profile of new homes delivered over the past five years.
This shift indicates that the Grey Belt holds immense potential to cater to these underserved demographics, offering new housing opportunities that align more closely with the needs of lower-income populations. By unlocking development in the Grey Belt, the government has the opportunity to meet its housing targets while addressing the imbalances in housing availability for a broader spectrum of society. This strategy is not just about numbers; it’s about making housing accessible and affordable for the people who need it most.
VirginLand uses technology and data to connect developers with the most compatible landowners and sites. Operating as an ‘outsourced land department’ that generate off-market and exclusive acquisition opportunities for its retained clients. If you have any questions please contact matthew@virginland.com.
* Does not include unregistered land parcels in Scotland